{"id":20921,"date":"2026-03-06T15:28:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T15:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ta-staging.dvlpdigital.com\/?p=20921"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:05:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:05:06","slug":"pouvons-nous-sil-vous-plait-avoir-une-conversation-honnete-et-nuancee-sur-la-transition-energetique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ta-staging.dvlpdigital.com\/fr\/news-and-insights\/pouvons-nous-sil-vous-plait-avoir-une-conversation-honnete-et-nuancee-sur-la-transition-energetique\/","title":{"rendered":"Pouvons-nous s\u2019il vous pla\u00eet avoir une conversation honn\u00eate et nuanc\u00e9e sur la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\u2009?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Je souhaite partager un graphique qui trace le passage du cheval \u00e0 l\u2019automobile aux \u00c9tats-Unis entre 1900 et 1930.<\/p>\n

En 1910, les chevaux repr\u00e9sentaient encore environ 85 % des kilom\u00e8tres parcourus. L\u2019automobile existait, mais \u00e9tait encore marginale.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Imaginons une crise du foin en 1910. Les prix montent en fl\u00e8che. L\u2019approvisionnement est perturb\u00e9. Un journaliste \u00e9crit : \u00ab\u2009Quelle transition automobile\u2009? Les chevaux sont encore le moyen de transport par excellence.\u2009\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Cette affirmation est techniquement exacte. Mais elle est enti\u00e8rement fausse si l\u2019on consid\u00e8re les changements qui \u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 en branle.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est essentiellement l\u2019argument formul\u00e9 dans un article paru aujourd\u2019hui dans le Globe and Mail<\/i><\/a>. On \u00e9voque le choc p\u00e9trolier au Moyen-Orient comme preuve que la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est un mythe. Les combustibles fossiles repr\u00e9sentent encore 81\u00a0% de l\u2019approvisionnement en \u00e9nergie primaire, note-t-on. C\u2019est une baisse de seulement six points de pourcentage par rapport \u00e0 1973. La transition a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9mentie.<\/p>\n

Ce 81\u00a0% n\u2019est m\u00eame pas un chiffre exact\u00a0: une fois que l\u2019on tient compte de l\u2019inefficacit\u00e9 des combustibles fossiles par rapport aux \u00e9nergies propres, le chiffre r\u00e9el est plus proche de 68\u00a0%, ce qui signifie que les sources d\u2019\u00e9nergie sans carbone r\u00e9pondent d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 environ un tiers de la demande mondiale d\u2019\u00e9nergie, et non \u00e0 un cinqui\u00e8me. [Michael Liebreich analyse cette question en profondeur<\/a>.]<\/p>\n

Mais le v\u00e9ritable probl\u00e8me est le suivant : c\u2019est exactement ce \u00e0 quoi ressemblent les transitions lorsqu\u2019on est en plein dedans. Elles sont lentes, puis se manifestent soudainement. Rien n\u2019annonce la courbe en S \u2014 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle s\u2019impose.
\nEt pourtant, ce m\u00eame graphique est mal interpr\u00e9t\u00e9 de toutes parts. D\u2019une part, un choc p\u00e9trolier devient la preuve que la transition est un mythe. D\u2019autre part, l\u2019existence de la courbe en S devient une justification pour exiger que nous fermions toutes les infrastructures de combustibles fossiles d\u00e8s demain. Ces deux interpr\u00e9tations sont erron\u00e9es. Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, le passage du cheval \u00e0 l\u2019automobile est le fruit de plus d\u2019une trentaine d\u2019ann\u00e9es de changements d\u00e9sordonn\u00e9s, inconstants et perturbateurs. Ceux qui pensaient qu\u2019une telle op\u00e9ration se ferait du jour au lendemain se trompaient tout autant que ceux qui \u00e9taient convaincus que la transition n\u2019avait pas vraiment lieu.<\/p>\n

Voici ce que l\u2019article du Globe and Mail omet compl\u00e8tement : cette crise n\u2019est pas seulement la preuve de notre d\u00e9pendance actuelle \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du p\u00e9trole. Elle pourrait aussi acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer la transition dont elle nie l\u2019existence m\u00eame.<\/p>\n

Tous les pays qui voient les prix du p\u00e9trole grimper de 25 % en une semaine se posent la m\u00eame question : comment r\u00e9duire cette vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9\u2009? Dans le pass\u00e9, il n\u2019y avait pas de v\u00e9ritable r\u00e9ponse. On d\u00e9pendait des combustibles fossiles parce qu\u2019il n\u2019y avait pas de solution de rechange cr\u00e9dible \u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9chelle. Ce n\u2019est plus le cas aujourd\u2019hui. L\u2019\u00e9nergie solaire, l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne et l\u2019\u00e9lectrification ont franchi des seuils de co\u00fbts qui ouvrent des possibilit\u00e9s qui n\u2019existaient tout simplement pas il y a 10 ans. Pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans l\u2019histoire, les pays sont devant un v\u00e9ritable choix. Une crise g\u00e9opolitique de ce type est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment le moment o\u00f9 ils commencent \u00e0 le faire.<\/p>\n

Ce n\u2019est rien de nouveau. Les chocs p\u00e9troliers des ann\u00e9es 1970 ont acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 le d\u00e9veloppement du nucl\u00e9aire en France et les normes d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 dans toute l\u2019Europe. Cette crise engendrera le m\u00eame genre de r\u00e9sultats \u2014 et peut-\u00eatre plus rapidement encore, parce que les autres options sont moins ch\u00e8res, plus m\u00fbres et plus largement disponibles qu\u2019elles ne l\u2019ont jamais \u00e9t\u00e9. Les pays qui agissent de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9cisive r\u00e9duiront leur vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 au prochain choc. Les pays qui n\u2019entrent pas dans la danse seront \u00e9ventuellement confront\u00e9s une fois de plus \u00e0 ce dilemme.<\/p>\n

Le Canada m\u00e9rite une conversation s\u00e9rieuse, qui d\u00e9passe les positions tranch\u00e9es.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nous sommes au c\u0153ur d\u2019une transition qui s\u2019\u00e9tirera sur plusieurs d\u00e9cennies. La direction n\u2019est pas s\u00e9rieusement en cause, mais son rythme, l\u2019ampleur des perturbations et la mani\u00e8re dont les co\u00fbts et les avantages seront r\u00e9partis au fur et \u00e0 mesure de la transition le sont absolument.<\/p>\n

Pour le Canada, cela signifie qu\u2019il faut d\u00e8s maintenant tirer parti de nos ressources et ne pas s\u2019en excuser. Mais cela veut aussi dire qu\u2019il faut investir dans la nouvelle \u00e9conomie de l\u2019\u00e9nergie qui se profile comme le fondement de la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019aube de ce si\u00e8cle. Nous pouvons consid\u00e9rer cet investissement comme une strat\u00e9gie s\u00e9rieuse d\u2019att\u00e9nuation des risques dans un monde o\u00f9 les actifs d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui peuvent \u00eatre confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des vents contraires structurels au cours de leur propre horizon d\u2019investissement. Il ne s\u2019agit pas d\u2019environnementalisme, mais d\u2019une responsabilit\u00e9 fiduciaire.<\/p>\n

Nous avons besoin d\u2019une politique industrielle fond\u00e9e sur la mani\u00e8re dont les transitions s\u2019op\u00e8rent r\u00e9ellement \u2014 pas d\u2019une id\u00e9ologie d\u00e9guis\u00e9e en pragmatisme ni de d\u00e9ni d\u00e9guis\u00e9 en r\u00e9alisme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Imaginons une crise du foin en 1910. Les prix montent en fl\u00e8che. L\u2019approvisionnement est perturb\u00e9. Un journaliste \u00e9crit : \u00ab\u2009Quelle transition automobile\u2009? Les chevaux sont encore le moyen de transport par excellence.\u2009\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":20911,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[],"focus_area":[144,143,142,145],"news_type":[117],"class_list":["post-20921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee","focus_area-combustibles-a-faible-teneur-en-carbone","focus_area-economie-du-futur","focus_area-electrification-fr","focus_area-trajectoires-regionales-sectorielles","news_type-media-release"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPouvons-nous s\u2019il vous pla\u00eet avoir une conversation honn\u00eate et nuanc\u00e9e sur la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\u2009? - The Transition Accelerator<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ta-staging.dvlpdigital.com\/fr\/news-and-insights\/pouvons-nous-sil-vous-plait-avoir-une-conversation-honnete-et-nuancee-sur-la-transition-energetique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pouvons-nous s\u2019il vous pla\u00eet avoir une conversation honn\u00eate et nuanc\u00e9e sur la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\u2009?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Imaginons une crise du foin en 1910. 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